How worried should we be about Transnistria?
Spoiler: not very.
This week, Moldova’s pro-Russian breakaway territory Transnistria held a rare meeting in which they called on Moscow for protection.
Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky convoked an extraordinary session of the region’s Congress of Deputies for the first time in nearly two decades.
He argued that Moldova is “violating the rights” of Transnistrians by imposing new tariffs on imports into and exports from the breakaway region. The roughly 600 lawmakers who attended the session voted in favor of a resolution calling on Russia for help.
The move conjured up images of what happened in Ukraine’s Donbas region before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of that country. People started to worry that maybe Moldova would get dragged into the war.
I wrote a news blurb about the events for National Journal, which you can read below. It provides more context on the history of Transnistria. I also spoke at length with Volodymyr Dubovyk, a professor of international relations from the Ukrainian city of Odesa, which is just a few hours from Transnistria by car.
He explained why the events in Transnistria aren’t really something to worry about, and where U.S. Congressional inaction on Ukraine fits into all of this. Here’s our conversation, which has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Cristina: How significant is what happened on Wednesday in Transnistria?
Volodymyr: I don’t think it’s very significant. It’s a way to remind the world that they still want to be separate from Moldova.
There is no new pressure from Moldova on Transnistria, so I don’t know what threats or challenges they are talking about, except for the one that always existed, which is that Moldova has made no secret that they want Transnistria to be integrated one day.
If you’re in Transnistria, you ideally need more money right now because, of course, Russia is preoccupied with its war on Ukraine. It’s not spending as much on Transnistria as it used to. Maybe you want to pocket some of that money.
Russia is often using Transnistria to destabilize the region. Over the last two years, during the full-scale war [in Ukraine], they have tried several times to distract attention from Ukrainians and maybe convince Ukrainians and the West that some trouble and some challenge is emanating from that region even though there is no big threat.
It’s a very small area. The number of military [personnel] there is limited. It’s formally the Russian military, but it’s really local people who are poorly trained and poorly equipped. So it’s not a big deal for Ukraine whatsoever in the context of this bigger war.
It could have been a problem for Ukraine if Russia were more successful in its offensive in the south. Maybe with ground troops and ships coming closer to Odesa, then maybe Transnistria would play a certain role.
But since Russia got stuck in the south, then Transnistria is completely abandoned, neglected, and forgotten.
Even prior to the larger war, there were logistical challenges for [Russia] to even get to Transnistria. A couple of times, people like [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov, big shots in the Kremlin, considered flying there. But then Moldova said no, Ukraine said no, and Romania said no, so there was no way for them to fly there, even to visit that area.
Early in the war, Russia did say that they were going to go to Transnistria. And I’ve been to Chișinău several times in the last year and a half and talked to a lot of people, and they said that at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, they were terrified. They packed their suitcases and said that if Russia were to break through to Odessa, they would probably head to the border because Russia probably wouldn't take over only the Transnistria territory. They might continue West to take over all of Moldova.
There was widespread fear. Then they were very relieved to see that the Russian invasion didn’t get as close to Moldova as they feared.
If U.S. aid gets to Ukraine, then Ukrainian troops will be able to defend key positions on the frontline, and then I don’t think Russian troops will be able to get anywhere close to Odesa or Transnistria.
Cristina: Do you have any sense of the reason for the timing? The Congress of Deputies meets very rarely. Why now?
Volodymyr: Russia is showing that they are so confident about the success of the war. They started talking again about how Odesa is a Russian city that is waiting to be liberated. They are talking about Kharkiv again.
They haven’t talked about that for the past two years. They talked about it at the beginning of the war, but then the war went badly for them, and they stopped talking about it. They focused primarily on the Donbas and Crimea and those regions that they have “integrated” into Russia.
But now they’re talking about Odesa and Kharkiv again, and I think Transnistria was important to send a signal to the West to show that Russia is getting stronger and has the upper hand in the war. They want to push Ukraine to negotiations and some kind of negotiated ceasefire.
It’s some kind of psyop that Russia is playing.
And it’s worked for them several times before when there was some kind of turmoil, and there were some explosions in Transnistria a few years ago. Primarily it’s directed at the West to try to show them that Russia is getting stronger and going to win.
Cristina: I know some people were concerned because we saw similar events in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine before the full-scale invasion.
Volodymyr: The big difference between Donetsk and Lugansk on the one hand and Transnistria on the other is the geographic location. The Donbas region has a huge border with Russia, so they can provide assistance and some troops and materials and arms. They cannot reach Transnistria.
They do have an arms depot in Cobasna, but the threat from that is of some kind of misfire or accidental explosion. Many weapons there are obsolete, so people are always concerned about safety.
Cristina: So what you’re saying is that Russia is emboldened because of the gains it has made recently in Ukraine, so they’re trolling everyone?
Volodymyr: They are trolling. They’re keeping the tension.
Of course, they also have troops in Belarus. That’s why some Ukrainian troops have to stay in the north of Ukraine, just in case some Russian troops decide to move from the north into Ukraine, like they did two years ago. Those Ukrainian troops are needed more in the Donbas or in the south. But we can’t move them there. That means there are fewer Ukrainian troops on the frontline.
So maybe Transnistria is an attempt to do the same thing in the south. There are Ukrainian troops in Odesa as well. We can’t keep Odesa naked and leave the border with Transnistria uncontrolled.
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Interesting statements:
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